Stocks to bet on China's economic future after the real estate pain ends
Bernstein and others argue that China's current economic slowdown does not necessarily mean it will experience a prolonged period of stagnation like Japan did. They suggest that China is going through a transitional phase rather than facing a similar fate as Japan's "lost decades."
According to Yao Yang, the dean of an economics department at a top Chinese university, China is not heading towards Japan-style stagnation. He believes that the recent property slump in China is temporary and that the government's involvement indicates that the sluggishness will not persist. Yao also points to China's high savings rate, advancements in artificial intelligence, and renewable energy capabilities as indicators of the country's long-term potential. He compares China to Japan in the 1970s, when Japan experienced a period of rapid economic growth that lasted for three decades. Bernstein, a financial research firm, shares a similar view, stating that despite similarities to Japan in the 1990s, China has several differences that make it less likely to experience stagnation. These differences include a lower urbanization rate and a higher level of innovation. While there are challenges to China's economy, such as debt and urban development issues, Bernstein believes there are still opportunities for a broad-based recovery through increased urbanization and government assistance. The article also mentions three Chinese stocks that Bernstein recommends, including BYD, Estun Automation, and Meituan. Additionally, Henry McVey, head of global macro at KKR, recently visited China and noted the country's efforts to reduce carbon emissions and integrate technology into the economy, which are contributing to GDP growth. Citi has revised its China GDP forecast to 5% for the year, aligning with the national target.