Thailand opposition on course to crush military parties in election rout
Important Points
Sunday's elections were the latest in a long-running struggle for power between Pheu Thailand, the populist juggernaut belonging to the billionaire Shinawatras, and an alliance of old money conservatives, and the military, who have influence over the key institutions that are at the core of 20 years of turmoil.
Thailand's opposition won a stunning victory in Sunday's election, defeating parties aligned with the military. This set the stage for an flurry of deals to form a new government, in a bid end nearly a decade-long conservative rule backed by the army.
With 99% of the votes counted it was clear that the liberal Move Forward Party and the populist Pheu Thai Party had a large lead. However, neither party is certain to form the next government due to the parliamentary rules drafted by the military following its 2014 coup.
To win power, opposition parties must strike deals with multiple parties, including the junta appointed Senate, which has supported military parties. The Senate votes on the prime ministerial candidate and the formation of the next government.
Sunday's elections were the latest in a long-running struggle for power between Pheu Thailand, the populist juggernaut belonging to the billionaire Shinawatras, and an alliance of old money conservatives, and the military, who have influence over the key institutions that are at the core of 20 years of turmoil.
The performance of Move Forward will test the resolve and stability of Thailand's ruling parties and establishment after the party came close to winning the capital Bangkok with a platform that included institutional reforms and the dismantling of monopolies.
Preliminary results show that Move Forward was the winner, closely followed by Pheu-Thai. According to a Reuters estimate, both parties were expected to win over triple the seats of Palang Pracharat - the political vehicle of junta - and United Thai Nation, which is backed by the army.
Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat (42-year-old ex-executive of a ride hailing app) described the result as "sensational". He vowed to remain true to his party values when forming government.
He told reporters that "it will be military-backed anti-dictator parties." It's safe for us to assume that a minority government in Thailand is not possible.
He stated that he was open to an agreement with Pheu Thailand, but he has his sights set on becoming prime minister.
He said on Twitter that "it is now obvious the Move Forward Party received the overwhelming backing of the people throughout the country."
Major blow
The preliminary results are a devastating blow to the military and allies. They could still play a part in the government if they have influential people behind them, and parliamentary rules working for them.
After nine years as Prime Minister, Prayuth, a retired military general, who led the previous coup, campaigned for continuity, warning that a change of government could cause conflict.
He slipped quietly away from the United Thai Nation headquarters on Sunday. There were very few supporters in attendance.
A few staff members sat next to plates of food that had not been eaten as a large television screen displayed a live speech from Move Forward's leader.
Prayuth said to reporters, "I wish the country peace and prosperity." "I respect the democratic process and the elections." "Thank you."
Pheu Thailand was expected to win, having received the most votes at every election since 2001. This included two landslide wins. Three of the four governments in Thailand have been removed from office.
Pheu Thai, founded by the self-exiled tycoon Thaksin, remains extremely popular with the working class. It was hoping to be swept back into power in a landslide based on nostalgia for populist policies such as cheap healthcare, generous farm subsidies, and micro-loans.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the daughter of Thaksin and her aunt Yingluck. She has been tipped as a prime ministerial candidate. Both Yingluck Shinawatra and Thaksin have been overthrown by coups.
Paetongtarn expressed her happiness for Move Forward but said it was still too early to talk about alliances.
She said, "The voice and opinion of the people are most important."
Move Forward, which saw an early rally in polls, was betting that 3.3 million new voters would support its liberal agenda. This included plans to reduce the political role of the military and amend a law restricting royal insults. Critics say this is used to suppress dissent.
Thitinan, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University said that Move Forward's rise showed a significant shift in Thai politics.
"Pheu Thai has fought the wrong battle." He said that Pheu Thai had already won the populism battle.
"Move forward takes the game to a new level with institution reform.
This is the new battlefield in Thai politics.